Custom Analysis

Trend and Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Trends for the Greater Hamilton Area, Ontario | A Mitacs Collaboration

Brief Description

The Hamilton Conservation Authority, in partnership with Matrix Solutions Inc. and the McMaster Centre for Climate Change, are currently leading a study to understand the impacts of climate change in the Hamilton area, with specific attention being placed on the water resources and hydrology of the Lower Spencer Creek watershed. A critical input to the work are local climate projections, which are derived using a combination of global circulation model (GCM) outputs and a variety of statistical and dynamical modeling techniques to transform those large-scale estimates into more local ones (i.e., called downscaling). There are however, a range of GCMs, future climate scenarios and downscaling techniques that can be used and each yields different results. Due to this uncertainty, it is regarded as best-practice to use a collection of individual projections to develop “ranges” that characterize future climate conditions. The aim of project is to conduct this analysis for the variables of precipitation and temperatures, which will be used directly by the HCA in their assessment of impacts and hydrologic modeling.

Project Partners

Matrix Solutions Inc. | Hamilton Conservation Authority | McMaster Centre for Climate Change

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The Identification and Validation of Extreme Weather Indicators for Agricultural Production and Rural Resilience in Ontario

Brief Description

The overall aim of the proposed project is to generate a robust suite of extreme weather indicators for several key crop production systems and rural livelihood impacts that could be used to represent current and future climate conditions in the DSM for the two selected case study areas. As such, the main output of the proposed work will be the climatological indicators required for analysis of impacts and input to the DSM along with documentation of the technical methods.

Project Partners

York University | International Institute for Sustainable Development | Carleton University | Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

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Applied Climate Science

A Comparison of Alternative Techniques for Deriving Extreme Rainfall Statistics in the Context of Climate Change

Brief Description

There are a number of researchers in Canada and elsewhere that have attempted to produce future IDF statistics using climate model output, but these researchers have widely varying methodologies both in the derivation of IDF statistics and in the use and pre-processing of climate model output. The outcome has been divergent or inconsistent results among future IDF datasets. This makes it difficult for municipalities and other proponents in Ontario to choose research partners for developing future IDF statistics and to use the outcomes of such research with an appropriate understanding of their limitations and uncertainty.

Our current project will attempt to address this issue by conducting a comparison and critical analysis of the methodologies that are available for climate change IDF derivation and the use of climate model output in that process. Recommendations for proponents in Ontario as to which methodologies are most appropriate for common applications and guidance on the limitations of future IDF information will be developed.

Project Partners

University of Waterloo | McMaster University | Toronto and Region Conservation Authority | Essex Region Conservation Authority

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An Analysis of Great Lakes Climate Change Science Since 2010

Brief Description

In order to effectively move ahead with the agenda of cooperatively identifying, quantifying, understanding, and predicting climate change impacts on the Great Lakes, it is necessary to have a shared understanding of the state of the science, including current strengths and knowledge on climate model usage, and the characterization of risks and system vulnerabilities.The overall objective of this research is to develop a clear understanding of the current strengths and gaps in climate change science in the context of commitments under the draft COA and the GLWQA.

In support of these objectives the OCC and project partners from McMaster University will be undertaking An Analysis of Great Lakes Climate Change Science Since 2010 to understand the use and applications of climate change scenarios, global circulation models, downscaling techniques and other analytical tools used to characterize climate change risk and vulnerability in the Great Lakes region.

Project Partners

Environment Canada | Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources | McMaster University

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